Larry Kudlow's "Boom"

We’re in an American boom and I cannot understand why there is so much pessimism.

So claimed Larry Kudlow yesterday. I wonder as well, but from a different viewpoint.

Working in advertising exposes one to the vagaries of the business cycle. In good times, it's a great living; in bad times it's one of the most difficult industries there is.

It's a well-known truism that ad dollars are the first thing to go away when the economy turns south and the last thing to come back once fortunes are reversed. When you look at the raw economic numbers right now, we're very far from "gone south." So where's the money?

Given the reality of advertising's place in the corporate food chain, it's not a difficult question to answer, it's all about the lag. Unemployment is down to 4.7% yet my largest telecom advertiser has restructured their ad buy for 2006 and allocated zero corporate dollars for our market. Our other largest telecom client has reduced spending in their markets for '06 substantially--nearly 45% from year-to-year in our case.

The money is there, it's a matter of finding it.