Monday, April 10, 2006

Likely or unlikely: "Normal Contingency Planning"

Much ado over Uncle Sy's incredible grasp of the obvious--that governments plan for all kinds of things, likely and unlikely as any of them might be. Why do we go through such commotions every time Uncle Sy puts pen to paper?

The President explains today a bit of what his mindset is: President Bush said Monday that force is not necessarily required to stop Iran from having a nuclear weapon, and he dismissed reports of plans for a military attack against Tehran as "wild speculation."

Bush said his goal is to keep the Iranians from having the capability or the knowledge to have a nuclear weapon.

"I know we're here in Washington (where) prevention means force," Bush said during an appearance at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University. "It doesn't mean force necessarily. In this case it means diplomacy."

Bush and other administration officials have said repeatedly that the military option is on the table, and White House officials acknowledge "normal" military planning is under way. Several reports published over the weekend said the administration was studying options for military strikes, and an account in The New Yorker magazine raised the possibility of using nuclear bombs against Iran's underground nuclear sites.

Later, Scott McLellan gets to the heart of the entire situation:

White House press secretary Scott McClellan refused to confirm or deny The New Yorker report. "Those who are seeking to draw broad conclusions based on normal military contingency planning are misinformed or not knowledgeable about the administration's thinking," he said.

"Normal Contingency Planning." Plans such as this exist, and always will. Cold War? We had plans under various scenarios to engage the Soviets in a shooting war.

There was even a recently de-classified military plan for the invasion of Canada.

Given the "near impossible" nature of the task, calling it a foregone conclusion strikes me as a leap. Just because plans exist, doesn't make their implementation imminent.

Frankly, if a government didn't have such planning routinely going on, it would be derelict in it's primary obligation to keep it's citizens safe.

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