Author, Radio show host & Prophet

First came this:

From the Ricks' interview:

HH: Do you expect to see, Thomas Ricks, staged atrocities [in Iraq]? And if so --like Hezbollah did in the summer war-- and if so, will the American military be prepared and nimble enough to respond to them, and the American media responsible enough to give the context?

TR: Don’t know. There’s no question, though, that Muqtada al-Sadr, a supporter of Hezbollah, to my knowledge, he mounted the largest demonstration ever in their favor.

HH: But do you expect that they will try and rig the media war?

TR: They will use every tool they can. They are very smart, and they’re very tough, and they’ve succeeded in a very difficult operating environment. Sadr’s taken on the U.S. government twice, and has emerged not only alive, but more powerful.

Then today comes a firsthand report of this:

Violent incidents are still decreasing in number and impact in Baghdad. Yesterday for instance the only reported incident was the abduction of an adviser to the minister of defense by gunmen in western Baghdad. It was less than 24 hours until the security forces succeeded in freeing the abducted general and arresting 4 of his captors. . . . The Mehdi army is not responding to the raids with fire, but they are trying to undermine the security plan by spreading rumors about alleged crimes committed by US soldiers, specifically against the Shia.

It was a sucker's bet really. Given the inclination of western press to print and run with any story-line they get from the "other side," it wasn't one of the harder predictions to make. I suppose the question is, just who will bite and how hard?