Michael Totten Delivers

Over at Instapundit this afternoon, Michael Totten links up to some interesting stuff out of the ME:

Quagmire: HASSAN Nasrallah is in a quagmire. If, according to his own statements, Nasrallah knew Israel would attack Lebanon between September and November, if he was aware the Zionist enemy was ready for war and if he had received this information, which even the Pentagon and CIA could not receive, why did he give Israel an opportunity to launch the war before time by kidnapping two of its soldiers? Nasrallah has called for the beginning of a second phase of this war.

In what he calls “Beyond Haifa,” Nasrallah says his fighters will begin rocket attacks deeper into Israel, south of Haifa. We wonder if Nasrallah took any time to review his achievements in the first phase of the war against the enemy before thinking about the next.

Expansion: If Israel was truly escalating the conflict and making a sectarian play, it would have been far more suitable to take out the bridges linking Christian east Beirut with the Christian suburbs immediately to the north, or even the newly constructed bridges and tunnels linking the Beirut's northern Christian suburbs with Jounieh.

Israel is not cutting off Beirut from the North and East.

This is pure speculation, but the Israelis might have found that Sunni fundamentalists from Tripoli and/or Palestinians from the camps outside of Tripoli have taken up the fight in the south, and their movement is now being limited. It's difficult to travel from Tripoli through Akkar through Hermel through Baalbak through the rest of the Bekaa and into southern Lebanon.

Then again, Israel might be trying to keep Hezbollah militiamen from traveling up the Bekaa through Akkar through Tripoli and back down to the southern suburbs of Beirut.

Or, perhaps the Israelis have intelligence claiming that Hezbollah is traveling up the coast seeking refuge in the Sunni north, or crossing into Syria from the north. Or conversely, Syria is sending Hezbollah weapons through Akkar.

Evisceration: Even now, despite the united front exhibited by Lebanon's political parties following the Qana carnage, concerns are being voiced by Lebanese Shiites over Hizbullah's foresight regarding ensuing economic and social consequences when it decided to capture two Israeli soldiers. These voices have also expressed concern over how Nasrallah is to fulfill his vow to refugees for a quick return to their homes.

In sum, after the current Lebanon war has ended, a long period of rehabilitation will be required to get Lebanon back on its feet. The effort will require significant international action, whereas Hizbullah may be left with a relatively negligible role in the process.

I'm watching NBC News in the background and I didn't catch anything about this...