Saturday, September 30, 2006

Casualty Rates


One of the allegations in Woodward's State of Denial asserts that US forces come under attack in Iraq, on average, 100 times a day. Now, I'm no math wiz and I am certainly no statistical genius but I don't think US casualty rates support that.

A rolling average of the last three months figures at icasualties.org reveals a US casualty rate of 2.06 per day. According to Woodward's book, in any given month we're suffering 3000 attacks on US forces (30 days x 100/day = 3,000) and yet the casualty rate over the last few months is a number so small that my calculator doesn't want to figure it.

Either the number makes no sense or we've gotten so good at repelling, resisting and/or surviving such numerous attacks as to make the number near meaningless. So what else in there doesn't make sense?

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