It all comes down to this

The NL West will be decided this weekend.

...and if recent trends are any indication, the San Diego Padres will inflict a serious beat-down on the LA Dodgers.

After taking two of three from the Reds this week, the Friars extended their wildcard lead to 2 1/2 games over the Giants and Phillies and moved to within a half-game of the Dodgers in the NL West race. Tonight, San Diego opens a four game series in Chavez Ravine to sort this thing out once and for all. And trust me, the Padres will win this series decisively. It's not just the 11-3 advantage the Pads hold over LA this season. It's not just the mastery the team has displayed against its rival to the north for, well, a long damn time.

No, the Padres will clutch the division by the throat this weekend because the Padres will out-pitch the historically pitching-rich Dodgers. It should be a great series, but when it comes to match-ups, San Diego has a clear advantage:

Boomer Wells vs. Greg Maddux: Two of the all-time post-season wonders will square-off tonight. But Wells, who has been on the DL most of the season, is well-rested and pitching better than Maddux at this point in the season.

Woody Williams vs. Chad Billingsley: A classic struggle between crafty vet and promising rookie. But Williams has been hurling light-out of late and is another of those stretch-drive / post-season bulldogs. He also happens to man-handle LA.

Chris Young vs. Derek Lowe: Young has been the Padres' most consistent, and at times dominant, starter this year. Lowe is one of those guys I've never figured out. People talk him up and he'll win you a game, but his peripherals are never very impressive.

Jake Peavy vs. Brad Penny: The worm has turned for both of these guys. For Peavy, it's been a positive turn. After a trying and head-scratching season in which he's been mostly ineffectual and injured, the Pads' ace has turned it on of late. Penny had been dominant most of the year before recent stumbles. He simply doesn't look like the same pitcher. Bad timing. In what could be the decisive game of the season, my money's on Peavy.

These matchups give a slight tilt to the Padres, but where San Diego will decisively take the series will be in the late innings. In a playoff atmosphere, the late innings will be decisive and the Friars have more ammo in the bullpen. The majors' hottest pitcher right now is record-setting rookie Cla Meredith who is riding a streak of 33 2/2 consecutive innings without surrendering a run. By the end of this weekend, Trevor Hoffman may tie Lee Smith as baseball's all-time saves leader. He would need a save in every game to accomplish that feat, but it could happen. Believe me, Hoffman's the kind of competitor that would certainly love doing it in that fashion with everything on the line. The Pads supplement those two with Allan Embree, Scott Williamson, Jon Adkins, Rudy Saenez and others. This group simply outclasses the best the Dodgers might have to offer in the late innings. It will be here that San Diego carries the day.

So fans, tune in because it should be a weekend of hard-fought baseball with the good guys coming out on top. As for me, I'll be in Denver hoping I can find these games on the tube somewhere.