GOTV, Republican Syle

A day after I found this gem on the Governator's GOTV efforts, Jim Gerahty over at NRO wrote a lengthy piece on the National GOP efforts. It's lean, it's mean and a very well-oiled machine. And the Democrats have nothing that holds a candle to it:

I know a person or two plugged in to that world. Let's start with the good news for Republicans. In 2002, the new and improved get-out-the-vote system worked very well. In 2004, they studied the results, refined and improved it again, and it worked fantastic. And for this year's elections, they have studied 2004, refined, expanded, and improved it again, and it can/should/will be even more effective. And, I am told, the Democrats do not have anything comparable. They will be relying on the old-fashioned way - unions, African-American churches, and volunteers knocking on doors.

(To refresh, after 2000, the GOP threw out the old "rules" for turning out the vote. They cross-referenced consumer data and polling data with voter registration rolls, and determined not only their likely voters, but pursuadables - folks who had voted GOP in the past but had fallen out of the habit, right-leaning folks who had forgotten to register when they moved, folks who were likely Republicans but who had never been reached by previous GOP outreach efforts because they lived in Democratic neighborhoods. While the Democrats hired anybody for $8 an hour to knock on doors and tout their candidates, the Republicans relied exponentially more on personal contact - somebody from your church, your child's Little League coach, your neighbor, your softball league buddy, etc. Needless to say, in 2004, this new strategy worked wonders.)

The good news is, in 2006, the GOP will be deploying a get-out-the-vote-system that's even better than 2004.

The bad news is, it requires enthusiastic Republicans; if Iraq, spending, immigration, or Foley have damaged the enthusiasm of the GOP base, then the system can't make these people vote. (Perhaps that's next year's upgrade. I write that only to set off spasms of paranoia among our left-of-center friends.)

So, the question is, what does a good "ground game" get you on Election Day? One person, seemingly in a position to know, said last night that (s)he foresaw any GOP candidate being able to overcome a 4 to 5 point deficit going into Election Day — that it's that good.

One best hope so.