Padre Power!

Last night witnessed the kick off of the baseball season in the Big Apple amidst the maddeningly annoying hype surrounding the first of many Red Sox-Yankees tilts. With that mess as backdrop, let us turn our attention to a far more interesting corner of the baseball universe (at least for those who spawn this blog): the NL West Derby.

This season’s race promises to be another wide-open affair in which any of three teams have a shot at the title depending on injuries, luck and a well-placed steroid suspension or three. Let’s take a look at the combatants, their pros and cons and finish out with some bold April predictions.

San Francisco would probably enter the season as the division’s prohibitive favorite with the off-season importation of Armando Benitez and Moises Alou. But as the season opens, Barry Bonds’ myriad troubles threaten to render the game's most dangerous hitter a complete or partial non-factor. Not good news for a franchise with an aging lineup and which will roll out a fairly pedestrian pitching staff once you get beyond Jason Schmidt. Youngsters Jerome Williams and Noah Lowery could surprise, however. Additionally, the arrival of Benitez sorts out last year’s biggest problem, which was the pen. Matt Herges will benefit by occupying a set-up role more suited to his skill set. Brian Sabean’s charges always play with a lot of enthusiasm and Felipe Alou manages to squeeze more toothpaste out of the tube than many of his contemporaries. Of course, the key here is the man with the gargantuan melon . But assuming he returns and plays well, the play of Moises Alou, Pedro Feliz and the development of Williams and Lowery will be crucial to the team's hopes.

The Trolley Dogs of Chavez begin the season wholly emasculated from last year’s division winner. Gone are sluggers Adrian Beltre, Steve Finley and Shawn Green. Jeff Kent will replenish some of the lost sock but will also return the middle infield to the time-honored Dog tradition of scissorhands defense and the play-for-pay mentality which has plagued this franchise for a decade (where have you gone Paul Lo Duca?) Jose Valentin will be a .245-hitting strikeout machine at 3rd. Hee Seop Choi won’t remind anyone of Mike Marshall (heh). But what of the pitching? Odalis Perez will be racking up K’s and W’s for my fantasy league team (hat tip: Paul), but Derek Lowe cannot be counted upon to deliver a sub 4.50 ERA. Brad Penny, meanwhile, starts the season on the DL with Eric Gagne and Wilson Alvarez. For LA to make a run, JD Drew, Jeff Weaver and Penny will need to deliver productive, emotionally stable and physically healthy seasons. That’s kind of like counting on the ESPN message boards for insightful and dynamic political repartee. Too many questions.

Colorado is, well Colorado. Williamsport has a way of taking this team out of the race before it even gets started. But there is cause for long-term optimism in Denver. Youngsters like Jeff Baker, Matt Holliday, Cliff Barmes and Jeff Francis (should Coors Shellshock not ruin him) have shown flashes that bode well for the future. Todd Helton will have another monster year and a healthy Preston Wilson should rebound to bring some serious lumber. But as always, pitching is this team’s albatross. Names like Kennedy and Chacon just aren’t going to get it done at altitude for Clint Hurdle’s team. See you in ‘06.

Which brings us to San Diego. I felt a little baited-and-switched following the successful inaugural season in Petco Park when John Moore$ chose not to invest in the offseason. Rather than pursue a fleet, big bat like Carlos Beltran to patrol Petco’s spacious CF or to slam the door on the division race by taking a moderate dollar calculated risk by retaining Boomer Wells and signing Woodrow Williams, the team tinkered at the margins. Acquisitions like Dave Roberts, Geoff Blum, Mark Sweeney and Eric Young certainly strengthen the bench, but weren’t the bold moves long-suffering Friars fans like myself deserve. In fairness, the team returns last season’s phenomenal bucket brigade bullpen of Linebrink-Otsuka-Hoffman. A 4-year extension for Jake Peavy indicates that the Padre brass believes he is capable of fronting a more-than-solid rotation. Additionally, the dazzling Khalil Greene promises only to improve on last year’s fine rookie season. The key for the Friars will be a return to normal seasons for Ryan Klesko and Brian Giles. Along with Phil Nevin, they seemed a little psyched-out by the new digs last year. Additionally, more offense will need to come from Greene, supersub X Nady and Single Sean Burroughs. At this juncture, only Chop-Chop appears incapable of delivering the goods. But I remain ever vigilant.

In my opinion, the race will come down to an entertaining dogfight between the two Sans, unless Bonds plays a meaningful and productive chunk of the season. But in the end, I believe the Padres will win the division and make their first post-season appearance since 1998.

Bold Predictions

San Diego 90-72
San Francisco 86-76
Los Angeles 78-84
Colorado 68-94