Mr. President, We regret to inform you that you're toast

On Tuesday, as W. was strumming his tired little diddy of "smoking them out" and "show the terrorists we mean business--go buy something," a perfect storm was gathering that this president was wholly unaware of and fully unprepared to grapple with. This storm threatens to undermine whatever presidency and legacy Bush is tenuously clinging to.

A perfect storm is a situation where the confluence of smaller events create a larger one. As Bush spoke in San Diego such a storm was brewing in the form of Katrina and the political fallout likely to accompany it. Questions are now being raised about the Bush Administration's budget as it relates to funding Gulf Coast hurricane protection projects.

As I wrote yesterday, it is hardly the time to be playing politics. Folks need help. But there are some questions staring us in the face, and frankly, they need to be answered. While I would dispute the direct causal link drawn between the war in Iraq and underfunding New Orleans levee projects (there are many budget line items and all are equally able to be cut or re-prioritized), the fact is that the Bush Administration slashed funding and is now in a political pickle:

The 2004 hurricane season was the worst in decades. In spite of that, the federal government came back this spring with the steepest reduction in hurricane and flood-control funding for New Orleans in history. Because of the proposed cuts, the Corps office there imposed a hiring freeze. Officials said that money targeted for the SELA project -- $10.4 million, down from $36.5 million -- was not enough to start any new jobs...The Newhouse News Service article published Tuesday night observed, "The Louisiana congressional delegation urged Congress earlier this year to dedicate a stream of federal money to Louisiana's coast, only to be opposed by the White House. ... In its budget, the Bush administration proposed a significant reduction in funding for southeast Louisiana's chief hurricane protection project. Bush proposed $10.4 million, a sixth of what local officials say they need."

To be fair, making the wrong choices about competing budget items can happen to anyone and can always look bad if your underfunded intiative gets hit. Moreover, according to the article, the State of Louisiana has been ineffectively grappling with this problem for decades. This issue didn't just arise on Bush's watch. Whatever problems exist are the result of years of neglect and mismanagement. And finally, the scope of the devastation ranges far beyond New Orleans. So those are the caveats.

But in light of the viciousness of the 2004 hurricane season it seems rather curious to me that the Administration would slash funding for Louisiana hurricane protection projects to a historical low. Were they just playing the Vegas odds? If so, the people of Louisiana lost. And what of funding for such projects in Florida? Surely, brother Jeb saw an increase in funding because any kind of cut after last year would be politically untenable. So this story isn't going to get better for George W. It will be yet another example of negligence and poor preparation.

But as we have learned with 9/11, Iraq and other snafus, that's never enough to really get the guy in trouble. Reagan didn't know the first thing about teflon compared to this guy. The difference is that Reagan wasn't tone deaf. And when you combine the devastation of Katrina, with a mistake in judgement and a tin ear, it doesn't bode well. It's not too late for George. Per usual, he finds himself down 8-0 in the second inning. While he can still slug his way back into the game, this time the deficit may simply be too great to overcome. And when he visits the region tomorrow, if you see him climbing on top of a beached casino with his arm draped over the shoulder of a Cajun yelling into a bullhorn about "smoking Katrina out," you'll have a good sense that this man's goose is cooked. Bush's Waterloo was supposed to be Iraq. But this time he may be facing a perfect storm.