Obligatory Sports Post

The Pitchers Gambit

That's what I'm calling my keepers strategy in fantasy baseball this season. We've begun drafting for the '05 season this morning in my primary fantasy league, and our final keepers list was due in yesterday. I spent the weekend mulling over my roster and deciding who to keep and who to let go. I hate this part. Especially after a season like last year, when I assembled a balanced roster of dominant pitchers and solid position players leading to a second League championship in three seasons.

League rules stipulate that each team shall keep no more than three players from last year's roster for the new season, though no owner is forced to keep any players if they choose not to. In my humble opinion, three keepers is too few (at least from a champion's perspective!). However, since rules is rules, I needed three keepers for my list. On then to the dilemma...

My pitchers last season included Randy Johnson (SP-NYY), Tim Hudson (SP-Atl), Jason Schmidt (SP-SF), Trevor Hoffman (RP-SD), Dan Kolb (RP-Atl), Jaret Wright (SP-NYY). And yes, those teams are not who they played for last season but who they will start the season with in '05.

My position players included Derek Jeter (SS-NYY), Sean Casey (1B-Cin), Aubrey Huff (1B/3B/OF-TB), Aramis Ramirez (3B-ChC) and Michael Young (2B/SS-Tex). All had solid seasons, and in the cases of Young and Casey, breakout and MVP-consideration type seasons. So what to do?

After long thought I concluded that each of my two League titles was won on the strength of my pitching staffs. Obvious pitching selections would be Hudson and Schmidt and Johnson but with a caveat about age and moving back to the AL.

The last two seasons, the one position-player I've held from year-to-year was Jeter. As I examined his stats for the last three seasons, it became more clear that while he is solid because he puts up numbers in all the offensive categories, his rep is bigger than some of his numbers. For instance, he wasn't even the best SS on my roster! Young hit for better average, drove in more runs and hit nearly the same number of HR's. So... Young is an option. Anybody else?

Aramis Ramirez maybe? Great BA and HR numbers, solid run production and best of all...he's only 26. Is there room for him along with the must-have pitchers? No, not really...and so begins the long descent into despair. Too many players, not enough spots.

Then it came! Yes, I know I've won with pitching in the past, but can it happen again? Look at the staff!

Johnson rebounded from a horrible, injury-shortened '03 with a winning record, league-low ERA and yet another high 'K' total. All reports so far in the spring reveal a pitcher who appears comfortable with his new surroundings and is throwing hard and well. Lefties can't hit him, so the short porch in RF at The House that Ruth built should not be a problem. Keep!

The A's shipped Hudson to Atlanta where he'll play in a serious pitcher's park. The potential for a huge season is very, very good. Hudson's '04 was disappointing in comparison to his '03 and a rebound is likely. Keep!

Jason Schmidt and Randy Johnson were the two most dominant pitchers in the NL last season. The night that Johnson was no-hitting the Braves in Atlanta, Schmidt was throwing a one-hitter at home. 18 wins on a team not nearly as strong as it had been in seasons past, 250+ strikeouts, 10+ K's per 9 innings, K/BB ratio of 3.25 and an opp. BA of .202...Must keep!

So it comes down to pitching, pitching and pitching. My entire season rests on the performance of these three gentleman yet again. Certainly, there will be players mined out of obscurity and stars found in surprising places in the draft as always, but it comes down to pitching: if I get dominating performances from the staff again this year, I will be competitive, and that's all I ask!


UPDATE: ESPN says I've got 3 of the top 8 starters in the game. That ought to be worth something...